The key forecast is that the Fed will be on hold over the next six months.
Our proprietary macroeconomic model delivers systematic, data-driven forecasts for U.S. monetary policy and market conditions. Developed over two decades ago and continuously refined, it leverages 30 years of historical data across approximately 50 macroeconomic indicators. Fully machine learning-based, it operates without discretionary input. The model accurately anticipated the Federal Reserve's 2007 rate cuts before futures markets adjusted, demonstrating its predictive power.
The key forecast is that the Fed will be on hold over the next six months. This is a hawkish stance relative to CME Fed Watch, which implies a 50bp cut as the most likely outcome. NFP is projected to print at 159K next release and to rise to 190K in six months. Treasury yield curves are expected to steepen, with the 2Y-10Y spread at +18 basis points and the 5Y-30Y spread at +67 basis points. The S&P 500 is forecast to rise 7% over six months. These data-driven predictions reflect a resilient economy with limited need for Fed intervention.